Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Counts… The previous president was found guilty on 34 counts of sending hush money to porn star Stormy Daniels through his lawyer to buy her silence and using political funds to do it.
What It Means— Well, we won’t have a sleepy political summer. At the sentencing in early July, the judge has wide discretion to impose almost no punishment (fines, etc.) to jail time. As a friend (and many pundits later) pointed out, the Constitution does not exclude felons from running for president, although as a felon, Trump would not be allowed to vote for himself. Strange times indeed.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index Edged Up 0.3% in April, Is Up 2.7% Over Last Year.… The annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report shows the lowest increase since April 2021.
What It Means— Before we celebrate, consider the six-month annualized rate (3.18%) and the three-month annualized rate (3.46%), which were pointed out by the Fed’s mouthpiece, Wall Street Journal writer Nick Timiraos. The higher rates on these timelines are enough to give you pause, as is the fact that Timiraos had this report out just minutes after the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis dropped the PCE numbers. If I were a cynic, I’d wonder if Fed Chair Powell had the “Yeah, but…” piece ready to go through Timiraos so that investors wouldn’t look for a rate cut this summer.
For the Moment, the Yen Has Stabilized Around 157 per U.S. Dollar… After jumping to almost 160 yen per dollar, when presumably the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervened, the yen eased to 156 to 157 per buck.
What It Means— It’s a financial meltdown in slow motion. The BoJ has raised rates over the last two years but still holds rates at 1% when the Fed has pegged overnight rates at 5.25% to 5.50%. There’s a lot of opportunity for arbitrage, or carry trade, between the two. The BoJ doesn’t want to slow down exports by making them more expensive with a more-valuable yen, but letting the currency fall erodes the standard of living of the Japanese population. Today, the BoJ is hoping the Fed does its job for them. If the Fed lowers rates, then the yen will strengthen a bit against the buck, alleviating some of the pressure on the BoJ to hike rates. Unfortunately for the Japanese, a Fed rate cut seems less likely now than a month ago.
Eustis, FL, Installs Speed Cameras in School Zone, Automatically Issues Almost 800 Warnings in Five Weeks… It wasn’t a fluke or a ploy; drivers routinely speed through this particular school zone, and the warning program didn’t change anything. The system is now live and sends $100 tickets instead of warnings. In the first five weeks after activation, the city sent out 1,300 citations. Now the city has a different problem: a huge jump in revenue. Police Chief Craig Capri has suggested the extra cash will be spent on public safety, crossing guards, signs, and perhaps additional speed cameras in other school zones.
Because It Was a Slow News Week, You Get a Bonus Human Interest Story… The residents of Snettisham, Norfolk, U.K., claim feral chickens are destroying gardens as the chickens swarm in and out of a nearby wood. The neighbors don’t know who owns the land, but the birds are attracting tourists, who feed the chickens, attracting rats. The parish council has threatened to remove the flock, but so far nothing has changed. While some villagers like them, the chickens are becoming a nuisance. Perhaps the villagers should use an old-fashioned remedy, which includes 11 herbs and spices and a frying pan.
Data supplied by HS Dent Research
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