The Fourth of July… We celebrate the founding of the country but too often forget the benefits of freedom unique to the United States of America.
What it means… Our Constitution was preceded by the Magna Carta (1215) and the English Parliament’s Bill of Rights (1689), which created a separation of powers between the King and elected representatives. The United States improved upon these documents with a country of entrepreneurs that had freedom and property rights along with a constitution so well thought out that it has only been amended twenty-seven times in 235 years. No one puts it better than Ronald Reagan. The excerpt below comes directly from his Commencement Address at the University of Notre Dame back on May 17, 1981.
“This Nation was born when a band of men, the Founding Fathers, a group so unique we’ve never seen their like since, rose to such selfless heights. Lawyers, tradesmen, merchants, farmers – fifty-six men achieved security and standing in life but valued freedom more. They pledged their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor. Sixteen of them gave their lives. Most gave their fortunes. All preserved their sacred honor.”
“They gave us more than a nation. They brought to all mankind for the first time the concept that man was born free, that each of us has inalienable rights, ours by the grace of God, and that government was created by us for our convenience, having only the powers that we choose to give it. This is the heritage that you’re about to claim as you come out to join the society made up of those who have preceded you by a few years, or some of us by a great many.”
“This experiment in man’s relation to man is a few years into its third century. Saying that may make it sound quite old. But let’s look at it from another viewpoint or perspective. A few years ago, someone figured out that if you could condense the entire history of life on Earth into a motion picture that would run for 24 hours a day, 365 days – maybe on leap years we could have an intermission – this idea that is the United States wouldn’t appear on the screen until 3.5 seconds before midnight on December 31st. And in those 3.5 seconds not only would a new concept of society come into being, a golden hope for all mankind, but more than half the activity, economic activity in world history, would take place on this continent. Free to express their genius, individual Americans, men and women, in 3.5 seconds, would perform such miracles of invention, construction, and production as the world had never seen.”
The Presidential Debate… It was a first. A former president squared off with a sitting president in a live debate. A CNN flash poll declared that Trump won. But that doesn’t mean he will win the election. This election is about which candidate the undecided voters dislike less. And there’s one more wild card: who will be the Republican VP candidate?
What It Means— By keeping mum on the Veep choice, Trump will keep the attention on himself and will minimize the time that the media will have to pick apart the candidate. It’s a smart move.
New Home Sales Fell 11.3% In May… That’s the lowest number of new home sales since November.
What It Means— Builders, lenders, and buyers are parsing every word uttered by the central bankers for any clue as to when they will lower rates. So far, they’ve come up empty, except for stray comments about “when the data shows us” and “when the time is appropriate.” The problem is that we’re in no man’s land. Inflation is elevated but is not so high as to require action. Interest rates are in a similar limbo. Unfortunately, rates could remain stuck until the election if either side looks like it is gaining momentum.
Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Fed’s Preferred Inflation Metric, Eased to 2.6%, the Slowest Growth Since March 2021… Inflation continues to decelerate, which makes an economic soft landing possible.
What It Means— Can we have a vote for two Fed cuts near the end of the year? If the economy stalls a bit after August, the next president will be credited with reviving a tired economy even though the credit should go to the Fed for perking up an economy that it wounded with short rates over 5%. It’s a crazy world.
Japanese Police have Served Papers to a Woman for Riding Luggage on a Sidewalk… Police think this is the first time a person has been charged with riding luggage. Clearly the suitcase, which will go 10 mph, doesn’t belong on a street, but it also doesn’t belong where it will vie for space with pedestrians. A better question is who will carry the suitcase/scooter at the woman’s destination?
Data supplied by HS Dent Research
“When the facts change, I change my mind.
What do you do?” ~ John Maynard Keynes
Our plan is “the plan will change.”
What is your plan?
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