2012Aug27 Boomers booming

 

The boomers' biggest impact will be on eliminating

the term 'retirement' and inventing a new stage of life... 

the new career arc.

 

 ~ Rosabeth Moss Kanter

 

 

Boomers:

 

When I was young, a car with 90,000 miles on it was getting quite old, and things had to be constantly fixed or replaced. Today, 90,000 miles is just getting started. Cars don't wear out like they used to.

 

And apparently the same can be said for the Baby Boomer generation. In the past, as you approached 65 you began to think about retiring. Today, not as many people are ready to "hang up their spurs."

The next chart is from the St. Louis Fed FRED database. The blue line is the employment level of those 55 years of age and older (scale on the left), and the red line is the employment level of all workers (scale on the right).

Note that the number of employed 55 and over has risen more or less steadily since before the beginning of the Great Recession, growing by over 4 million, while the number of jobs for all workers has dropped by 8 million and is still down by over 4 million.

 

Since the end of the recession, the number of jobs has grown by less than 3 million, all of which have been gained by those in the 55 year and older category! And then some: Boomers have taken "market share" from those who are younger.

 

The "deal" with previous older generations was that they would retire and move on, making way for the next generation. Boomers are breaking that deal. Not only are we working longer, but we intend to keep on working as long as we jolly well feel like it, and then live on to a ripe old age and collect all those retirement benefits.

Healthcare:

 

After David Hubbard underwent a routine echocardiogram at his cardiologist's office last year, he was surprised to learn that the heart scan cost his insurer $1,605. That was more than four times the $373 it paid when the 61-year-old optometrist from Reno, Nev., had the same procedure at the same office just six months earlier.

 

"Nothing had changed, it was the same equipment, the same room," said Dr. Hubbard, who has a high-deductible health plan and had to pay about $1,000 of the larger bill out of his own pocket. "I was very upset."

 

But something had changed: his cardiologist's practice had been bought by Renown Health, a local hospital system. Dr. Hubbard was caught up in a structural shift that is sweeping through health care in the U.S.-hospitals are increasingly acquiring private physician practices.

 

As physicians are subsumed into hospital systems, they can get paid for services at the systems' rates, which are typically more generous than what insurers pay independent doctors. What's more, some services that physicians previously performed at independent facilities, such as imaging scans, may start to be billed as hospital outpatient procedures, sometimes more than doubling the cost.

 

This year, nearly one-quarter of all specialty physicians who see patients at hospitals are actually employed by the hospitals, according to an estimate from the Advisory Board Co. That is more than four times as many as the 5% in 2000. The equivalent share of primary-care physicians has doubled to about 40% in the same time frame. Traditionally, most doctors who see patients at hospitals are in independent practice.

 

The structural shift is being driven partly by declining reimbursements for physicians, particularly in certain specialties like cardiology. Doctors are also being pressed to make new investments, such as introducing electronic medical records, and some are attracted to the idea of more regular hours with fewer administrative headaches.

Riding the rails:

 

The AAR reported a 3.6% increase in intermodal traffic this week and a -2.1% decline in carloads.  This data has been remarkably consistent in recent weeks though it's off slightly in the last few months.  The 10 week moving average has dipped just slightly to 5% from 5.1% last week.  Intermodal has been a very good leading indicator of economic growth and continues to point to an economy that is modestly expanding.

 

Ten of the 20 carload commodity groups posted increases compared with the same week in 2011, with petroleum products, up 45.6 percent; farm products excluding grain, up 37.4 percent, and lumber and wood products, up 16.4 percent. The groups showing a decrease in weekly traffic included metallic ores, down 29 percent, and waste and nonferrous scrap, down 25.6 percent.