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Investor Resources emphasizes assets in the first two asset classes as long as they do not fail the "cash bogey" check. Positions in weaker asset classes should be monitored for technical deterioration that would indicate a sale to preserve capital and reduce risk. In Investor Resources, Inc.'s opinion, any asset class that ranks lower than cash should not be retained.
As of May 15, 2012 Commodities and International Equities remain in a tight range in total scores. Commodities lost 5 signals last night which was enough to fall below International Equities for the first time since early 2011. The positive trend for all equities relative strength indicator switched to negative. It generally represents the early part of a major drawdown.
As of May 14, 2012 Fixed Income, Commodities and International Equities continue to “churn in the mixing bowl” as they maintain very close Relative Strength levels. Commodities lost three signals and Fixed Income gained one causing it to hit the five 5 signal threshold, thereby moving Fixed Income into the second slot.That is sufficient spread to justify reallocating. As well, the International Equity asset class (rank 4) dropped a signal and failed its cash bogey. As well, the Commodity proxy RS chart versus the Cash bogey was being watched for a sell signal which it gave. Currency improved slightly but remains in a negative trend.
As of May 11, 201 Recent market volatility has caused some jockeying around in asset classes two through four. The actual numerical point change is not sufficient to readjust portfolios but is evidence of the shifting attitudes of investors.
As of May 8, 2012 Fixed Income and Intl. Equitues continue to jockey for the number 3 rank. They are essentially tied in the number of Buy signals so just a signal or two can change the rank. The change is not significant enough to justify reallocation. It is indicative of a changing market that my suggest reallocation soon.
As of May 2, 2012 The Commodities Asset Class which has been in the #2 slot since February has now failed its bogey check. This asset class like the others has had a tough time in the shadow of Domestic Equities in that it has not seen much carry through in buy signals. However, the strength in commodities has primarily been in energy. With many models heavy in the energy space we would consider using the bogey check to exit this asset class.
As of February 23, 2012 At the end last week Commodities had moved into the #2 slot, and as of Friday passed its Cash Bogey check. The rally in the commodities market over the course of the past few months has been relatively wide spread in that the vast majority of commodities have been lifted higher since the October 2011 market low.
As of February 8, 2012 Investors have become more tolerant of risk evidenced by the strengthening of international equities above cash. Other factors for the asset class have shifted from Avoid to Caution. Commodities and Fixed Income are essentially equally ranked with only a slight edge for Commodities in the "risk-on" rally.
As of January 25, 2012 Whipsaw or Flip-Flop, the technical ranking remain close and unstable. Positions 3 and 4 have switched again. Domestic equities are viewed by many analysts as over-bought - highly priced relative to the recent trading range. Waiting for a pull-back may provide a better price to add positions.
As of January 22, 2012 The "cash bogey check" turned positive for International Equities but remains in 6th position as an asset class.
As of January 10, 2012 The "cash bogey check" turned positive for Domestic Equities as the Bullish Percent of the NYSE continued to improve. Sector exposure should be supported by positive relative strength.
As of December 27, 2011 Commodities continued weakening as investors anticipate reduced demand in Europe and Asia.
As of November 25, 2011 Selling has been sufficient for US Equities to fail our "cash bogey" requirement. Broad market deterioration appears much like the conditions that preceded the October 2008 decline. Rumors from Europe continue to roil global markets. “Better to have stop and go, than no go at all.” - George Soros
As of November 21, 2011 Foreign Currencies added Money Market or US Dollar to the allocation. However, the trends remained negative.
As of November 16, 2011 Commodities shifted into #2 position with additional weakening in international equities. Commodities still fail the "cash bogey" requirement; therefore, trends are not sufficient to justify adding commodities to a portfolio.
As of October 24, 2011 Short term signals for the leading three assets are very tightly grouped resulting in a new ranking.
As of October 20, 2011 Optimism for a European Banking System solution and the Fed restarting a stimulus program combined with some positive earnings reports have pushed Domestic Equities up notch to favored status. Commodities continue declining connected to lower growth estimates for China.
As of October 14, 2011 Trendless markets may cause quick rotation among asset classes. The differentials between the first three classes is very narrow. Currencies and Commodities remain in negative trends.
As of October 13, 2011 Domestic equity strengthened enough yesterday to pass the cash bogey check. If the trend continues, it will move back into 2nd place. As of October 3, 2011
Foreign Currencies moved to #2 but remain in a negative trend on 10/3/2011.
This suggests that even long-term inestors not hold international exposure as of 9/22/2011.
Domestic equities failed to outperform Cash on August 2nd.
Commodities failed to outperform Cash on May 5th.
As of September 22, 2011
This suggests that even long-term inestors not hold internation exposure as of 9/22/2011.
Domestic eqities failed to poutpermorm Cash on August 2nd.
Commodities failed to outpermorm Cash on May 5th.
As of August 8, 2011
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