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Yes, that is the question that will impact the future of the USA and of the Euro Zone.

Domestically, the Y-generation would normally be moving out of their parents' home into their own apartment and later a single family house. Predictably, it is to be a much delayed event caused by our current economic malaise.

In Europe, a decision of international impact lies before Greece and Germany as the voters are turning their backs on austerity programs.

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Pointing the fingers of blame is about to get worse. Both parties can blame the other for the Taxmageddon. If you are reading this, you are likely on the list of affected taxpayers expected to give up more of your income. 

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Following trends in the markets requires patience to observe the development of what is happening rather than guessing about what will happen. For years we have referred to Japan as an example of an economy that is deleveraging with government attempts to change economic reality. The U.S.A. is in the early stages of a deleveraging cycle with the government trying to change reality. The markets are schizophrenic reacting to rapidly changing stories about current events.

It is normal for the market to have some choppiness in prices. That is the give and take between buyers and sellers. Recently, the greater awareness of the European problems has been disruptive for investors as sustainable trends have not developed. This is illustrated in the following chart:

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Historically, September is the most dangerous month for stock investors with downdrafts occurring more often than not. However, over the past decade, the probability of a positive investment return in September has improved.

Until the Fed meets again on September 20^th, positive drivers for the market remain elusive. IF the Fed begins another easing program (a big IF), the market could advance into next year. IF corporate earnings reports which begin at the end of the month are strong, they could fuel a major advance. Both catalysts require looking into a crystal ball and making a bet. Read More

We have long contended that spending your days glued to the financial press on T.V. or online or in print is a colossal waste of time. Now there is some research that it may be a very costly pastime indeed.

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